The outlook for summer in Summit County is looking slightly more encouraging than just a few weeks ago.
This May is already the wettest month in a year with 1.17 inches of precipitation at the Krystalized weather station in Dillon. Another two-tenths of rain and this will be the wettest since August 2024.
The good news continues with two new forecasts from the National Weather Service. Both good odds of above-average precipitation here in coming weeks. Beyond that is wetter weather through June, July and August for the entire four-corners region.
The 10-day outlook, good for June 2-6, puts Summit and most of the state in the green. The 14-day outlook, good through June 10, puts us in the green again.
Looking even further ahead, the most promising forecast is the three-month outlook good through August. It predicts Colorado, Utah, Arizona and New Mexico will enjoy rainy days more often than usual.
Says Matt Benedict, wildland fire chief for Red, White and Blue Fire in Breck, “The little bit of rain and humidity is helping to keep us out of critical fuel moisture levels.”
Wet and warm
This wetter weather comes with hotter temperatures. Short and long-term forecasts predict Colorado and most of the West will be warmer than usual.
Continues Benedict, “The problem with rain is that it doesn’t have a long-lasting effect and once the sun comes out things start drying out quickly.”
Benedict gives the example of “one-hour fuels.” Those are grasses that grow fast and thick near homes but can dry out within an hour of a rainstorm. It is some of the most dangerous tinder, and the first thing fire departments tell you to clear in the summertime. Like, do it now.
Hedging their bets
Our friend Joel Gratz at Open Snow has a warning about long-term forecasts. He doesn’t trust them.
The NWS forecasters don’t either, and they hedge their bets in the very way these outlooks are designed. They deal in “odds” of weather, not exact amounts, split into three categories – above, middle and below, based on 30 years of observations dating to 1981. When you see the map shaded green, this means forecasted weather is likely, not guaranteed.
Then, there’s the predicted “super El N.” Every week forecasters are more convinced it will arrive earlier and stick around through winter.
Feeling fine(ish)
The mood in the mountains is still much lighter than it was in late March and April, when Colorado was withering under a record-breaking heat dome, and state fire experts were predicting a summer on par with the worst in state history.
These new, wetter outlooks have already sparked optimism and some, um, “fake news” on weather watchdog pages like Seth’s Weather Group on Facebook, where more than 79,000 followers talk (mostly intelligently) about everything from snow and climate to El Nino and what kind of clouds are meandering over the San Juans.
Writes one commenter, “LOVING the daily rain and 70⁰ days in Colorado!! And since we sit at the top of North America, our water becomes everyone’s water in our watershed.”
Another says this was the forecast all along, except he must have been looking at a different forecast. In April the NWS predicted even-to-low odds of average and below-average precip in Colorado.